Why the 2012 Presidential Race is Already Over

Why is the 2012 Presidential Race already over?  The short answer is that Obama is already well ahead in all the states he needs to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold: (source: Real Clear Politics Electoral College Map)

UpdateSee the latest Electoral College state totals on the Immizen Electoral College List.

The following numbers add up to a total of 280 electoral votes – 10 more than needed for re-election. The Real Clear Politics site finally gave in to reality this week by moving Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Colorado to "Leans Obama".

Likely Obama (175)
California (55) Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3) District of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4) Illinois (20)
Maryland (10) Massachusetts (11)
New Jersey (14) New York (29)
Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3)
Washington (12)  
Leans Obama (105)
Colorado (9)
Maine (4)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
Nevada (6)
New Mexico (5)
Ohio (18)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)

Many political analysts (and would-be analysts) like to imagine that Obama's huge electoral college victory in 2008 was some kind of a fluke, but the truth on the ground is somewhat different. A case in point is my adopted home state of North Carolina with 15 electoral college votes. RCP currently has North Carolina in the "toss-up" category. Anyone who wants to give Romney some kind of fighting chance it seems just automatically puts North Carolina in the Republican column. The rather inconvenient fact is that Romney does not actually lead Obama in the polls here. (And has never lead him here.) Here is the Real Clear Politics North Carolina poll list:

Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
PPP (D) 4/4 – 4/7 975 RV 49 44 Obama +5
PPP (D) 3/8 – 3/11 804 RV 49 46 Obama +3
PPP (D) 2/3 – 2/5 1052 RV 47 46 Obama +1
Civitas (R) 1/9 – 1/11 300 LV 39 48 Romney +9
PPP (D) 1/5 – 1/8 780 RV 46 45 Obama +1
PPP (D) 12/1 – 12/4 865 RV 46 46 Tie
PPP (D) 10/27 – 10/31 615 RV 45 46 Romney +1
PPP (D) 9/30 – 10/3 760 RV 46 45 Obama +1
Civitas (R) 9/22 – 9/25 600 LV 39 50 Romney +11
Magellan Strategies (R) 9/7 – 9/8 923 LV 45 43 Obama +2
PPP (D) 9/1 – 9/4 520 RV 45 44 Obama +1
PPP (D) 8/4 – 8/7 780 RV 46 43 Obama +3
PPP (D) 7/7 – 7/10 651 RV 45 45 Tie
PPP (D) 6/8 – 6/11 563 RV 45 44 Obama +1
PPP (D) 5/12 – 5/15 835 RV 46 43 Obama +3
PPP (D) 4/14 – 4/17 507 RV 47 44 Obama +3
PPP (D) 3/17 – 3/20 584 RV 44 42 Obama +2
PPP (D) 2/16 – 2/21 650 RV 47 44 Obama +3
PPP (D) 1/20 – 1/23 575 RV 47 44 Obama +3
PPP (D) 12/17 – 12/19 520 RV 46 43 Obama +3
PPP (D) 11/19 – 11/21 517 RV 44 44 Tie
 

The PPP polls have consistently given Obama a small lead since December 2010, but what's up with those "Civitas" polls? Taking a closer look, it appears that even they agree that Obama is beating Romney in North Carolina:

5. If the election for President of the United States were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: Mitt Romney, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat?
Definitely Romney 38%
Probably Romney 6%
Lean Romney 2%
Undecided/refused 5%
Lean Obama 1%
Probably Obama 6%
Definitely Obama 41%

That comes out to 48% Obama, 46% Romney – completely consistent with the PPP polls in February!

Like Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida, North Carolina has had the misfortune of suffering a Republican take-over of government that has been characterized by one disastrous over-reach after another. This absolutely will be a factor in 2012. Add that to your calculations for Romney's chances to beat Obama. Not very good, are they?

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Why the 2012 Presidential Race is Already Over, 1.0 out of 1 based on 4 ratings

23 comments to Why the 2012 Presidential Race is Already Over

  • itaest

    I hate celebrating victory when there is so much road to travel… Romney is a weak candidate but he will not just throw in the towel, he will fight and he has the SuperPac billions on his side.

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    • Tom

      Then don't celebrate.  But facts are facts. The election is over.  The only story now is just "Is Romney the next (previous election cycle loser candidate name goes here)?".

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      • itaest

        Daily Kos is reporting that Obama does indeed have a landslide lead over Romney. Their numbers are even more in favor of Obama: 341 (Obama) vs 197 (Romney).

        But the Republicans still have a lot of time on their hands and they will use it to fight Obama till the end. I still think Obama will win, but what I wish is that the GOP just shoots themselves in the foot over and over agains as they have been doing with the contraception issue, by supporting snob millionaires like Romney, by fighting against raising taxes for the rich.

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  • BC

    Tom – Well written report and Intrade agrees with you.  I do not agree though at all.  I think if the election were held today Romney would win.  The reason is things are much worse than they were in 08 and people vote with their pocketbooks, which is why Bush Sr. and Carter were both thrown out after one term.
     
    The economy has been improving for over a year now and this is in Obama's favor, but real unemployment is still around 16-17% and due to dollar printing and Iran oil is high.  The result is oil based inflation on all retail goods.  People see this every week when they buy food or gas.
     
    This is not Obama's fault solely rather the result of 20 years of too much spending and bad policy by both parties. 
     
    Going forward there are both geopolitical and economic factors that may come into play.  Conflict with Iran could quite easily push crude to $200 per barrel or more.  Likud has a bee in their bonnet to hit them and even though Dagan rightly said there is more time that doesn't mean that Likud will sit still.  Factor into the decision that Likud isn't too fond of Obama and if they do this before the election what can Obama do?  Not much if you look at AIPAC's strength.
     
    Even though the economy is improved the danger exists that the recovery may stall due to high oil and if so bad news for Obama.  Furthermore, Europe is screwed.  ECB has printed 1 trillion euros since December and Spain is once again in trouble even though the idea was to take pressure off of sovereigns like Spain.
     
    If Euro collapses in a domino fashion and they will then this will plunge the global economy into a depression – the question is when does this happen.
     
    I think saying "the election is over" and "I have another 5 years" is little more than a psyop that won't work and should be concerning to Dems that such a tactic is being relied upon. 
     
    It always gets back to the economics, which are poor and it doesn't matter who did what as the voters tend to blame the guy in office.  He's finished.
     

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    • Tom

      "An election is a choice, not a referendum."
       
      - Karl Rove, 2004  (Of course this probably wasn't original with him.) 
       
      "It always gets back to the economics, which are poor and it doesn't matter who did what as the voters tend to blame the guy in office.  He's finished."
       
      I'm sorry BC, but if you believe that the economy now is "bad" under Obama, but "good" when Rove & co. were in charge, you're delusional.

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      • BC

        Not a fan of Bush either, but the economy was much better – not delusional – fact.  BLS data (unemployment rate) disagrees with you. 
         
         

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        • itaest

          The economy "appeared" better for a while, yes, for a while during the time when Bush was spending trillions in Iraq and allowing the banks and his rich friends (oil industry, etc) to run wild, the country was inching closer to the abyss.
          Bush destroyed the economy and created this debt. Unemployment numbers started to grow drastically during the end of the Bush adminstrator and there is no president who can come to office after the Bush catastrophe and wave a magic wand and repair all the damage at once. It took time to destroy and it takes time to fix.
          Those unemployment rates you see during the begining of the Obama administration are the consequence of Bush's inept administration. Blaming it on Obama is the lazy excuse of the right.

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          • BC

            My comment was that voters tend to throw out the incumbent when the economy is poor regardless of whether it's the incumbent's fault or not.
             
            As I have mentioned in other threads the genesis of our current problems has its roots in the 1980s and both parties share a lot of blame.  So I think Obama's re-election campaign pushing the idea that he inherited the problem will not fly.  He's been in office for almost 4 years.  Many view him as not understanding economics – not a small issue given our economic problems.  Had he focused on the economy initially and put healthcare on the back burner I think the economy would be a lot better now and he would definitely be looking at a second term.
             
            The policies of both the Bush and Obama administrations have made the problem worse and both have increased the debt a lot – Bush $4.9 trillion and Obama $6 trillion.
             
            I'm not blaming it solely on Obama rather saying he made it a lot worse.  As for blaming politicians, I would blame all Congresses since the early 80s, Reagan, Clinton, Bush Jr. and Obama.  And there's plenty of blame that can be put on most lobbyists and their end customers + a fair amount of people = regular citizens.
             
            As for banks they own both parties – why else has no one been charged/prosecuted for the financial crisis?  And a lot of the banking problems started when Clinton was in office + Congress. 

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  • LaLucilaKid

    I don't really see this whole thing as an election. Elect is a nice snob word, it suggests immensely wise people very sagely choosing almond croissants over pickled herring for some very very good reasons which it is the job of pundits to discover.
    I will be sorry when we finally elect somebody.  And this is a big change for me.  Last summer I was saying to myself, I wish there was a law to limit presidential campaigns to a period of three months before the election.  There could be a blinding flash of arguments and counter arguments, I thought.  Three months is about the maximum amount of time I take to decide most things.
     
    But now I see that the election is just an afterthought, like when a trans European train arrives at a station after hours and hours of the most interesting travel.  This campaign we are living through is like a battle scene, maybe like a car chase scene, in our national movie.  What if it were to just go on and on and on without end?  We have so many groups with so many zany points of view and they all want to be heard.  And heard and heard.  The situation has gotten quite lopsided:  people are raising millions of dollars to produce tv and other kinds of propaganda, and then a lot of highly paid people argue and argue about the fairness of the whole thing.  This monster should just keep going and going to exhaustion.  THEN we could hold an election.  Maybe. Or maybe not.  The Supreme Court decided an election once already, maybe they developed a hunger for the sport.  In the absence of rules, a game can go on forever and the referees can just blow their whistles and throw yellow flags all they want…….I have never seen anything crazier than this so called election and I have entirely lost interest in who will win or lose
     

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    • diversity_usa

      Funny, true and sad. That's a nice description of the American election process.

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    • itaest

      Excellent original and inspired way of describing elections!

      I find them facinating and infuriating at the same time. But I do like my president, therefore, I need to point out that when "choosing almond croissants over pickled herring", I was thinking, obviously the stinky herring adorned with pickles must be Romney, because I love almond croissants and have been buying them at least twice a week for breakfast.

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      • CarolCarolina

        I don't think a man who owns a car elevator would smell like a stinky herring but I like the way you think :) – I also love almond croissants.

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    • BC

      LaLucilaKid I have to agree with you on shortening the elections to 3 months or so.  The whole process is beyond ridiculous at this point and I think it would be nice to see the most American of things enter the race – competition in the way of a moderate 3rd party.
       
      The election is little more than a two horse dog and pony show where, as you indicate, pundits over analyze things pushing hot issues "du jour" while never tackling any tough or relevant issues.  As for "elect" being a snob word suggesting immensely wise people deciding….
       
      What do you suggest as a replacement?  The majority of people are so busy working to make ends meet perhaps they don't have the time to do the reading that they should.  Even if they did the system is so stacked that would it really make a difference?  Perhaps.  Are you suggesting that the majority of people are not educated or well read enough and therefore shouldn't have the right to vote?  If so shall we go back to only property owners having the right to vote or would you prefer that one have to have a given university degree?  The problem isn't the voters rather lobbyists, politicians and their corporate media allies.
       
      The problem in the US is the country is run by lobbyists something of which neither party wishes to run afoul.  Health care is a perfect example of this.  Republicans/Democrats have done very little to address the underlying problems.  Unclear what Republicans will do to fix this.  Democrats on the other hand wish everyone to have insurance; which is a good thing, but the end result will be many insured people without an ability to use it. 
       
      Will either party address tort reform, medical school costs, pharma costs, medical equipment costs, etc.?  Of course not as all these groups lobby heavily.  I haven't seen either party come up with a solution for our debt or many of the other problems plaguing our nation.  In addition to shortening the election how about term limits, limiting or no lobbying, no corporate or super PAC money + limit the amount any person can give and above all a moderate 3rd party.

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  • CarolCarolina

    Reading your article made me want to do my victory dance (involves some fist pumping and lots jumping in case you were curious) but there are still a few months to go and anything can happen. 

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