Ohio Goes From “Toss-up” To “Leaning Obama” – Obama Now Has 278 EC Votes!

Likely Obama (184)

Leans Obama (81)

California (55)

Pennsylvania (20)

Dist. of Columbia (3)

Wisconsin (10)

Delaware (3)              

Oregon (7)

Hawaii (4)

Michigan (16)

Illinois (20)

Minnesota (10)

Maryland (10)

Ohio (18)

Massachusetts (11)


New Jersey (14)


New York (29)


Maine (4)

 Virginia (13)

Rhode Island (4)


Vermont (3)

  = 278

Washington (12)

 (270 needed)

New Mexico (5)


Connecticut (7)


Immizen.com Calls The 2012 Presidential Election for Obama

A new CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll gives Obama a ten point lead over Romney in Ohio.  This, in combination with the recent Washington Post (Obama +8) and FOX News (Obama +7) polls, have raised the Ohio RCP average to Obama +5.2.  The way we look at things, an average margin between five and ten percent is significant, and we have therefore moved Ohio from "Toss-up" to "Leaning Obama" in the Immizen Electoral College List (ImzECL)

Normally we don't devote blog posts to changes like this, but this case is different as it is almost surely the straw that breaks the back of the Romney campaign.  As we reported previously, the Virginia ballot will include conservative third-party candidate Virgil Goode.  The FOX News poll of 9/16 – 9/18 gave Obama a  50 to 43 lead over Romney in Virginia, partly due a 2% showing for the Goode/Clymer Constitution Party ticket.  It goes without saying that the existence of a third-party candidate is a major problem for a campaign like Romney's that is based on negative ads. 

So, with the addition of Virginia, to the right is a very solid 278 Electoral College votes for Obama.  Nevermind battleground states like Florida, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Nevada where Romney is also currently behind.  The Obama campaign could "give" these states to Romney and Romney would still not win.  Even a miracle pick-up like Oregon (RCP: Obama +8.5), would still not be enough.  The 2012 Presidential Race is over.  The Immizen.com website is now calling it (for a second time) for Obama.

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