Obama lead in Virginia up to 5 points

This just in from Public Policy Polling:

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama expanding his lead in the aftermath of his debate victory Monday night. He now has 51% to 46% for Mitt Romney, up from a 49/47 advantage last weekend.

Key findings from the survey include:

-Obama’s seen a 7 point net improvement in his favorability rating among Virginia voters from a -3 spread last week (48/51) to now +4 at 51/47. Romney’s numbers have headed in the other direction. He’s dropped 7 points from a +2 spread on our last poll (49/47) to now -5 at 46/51.

-Voters trust Obama more than Romney on several major issues in the election. Those include who voters think will stand up for the middle class (52/44) and who they think will [...]

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Obama Approval At Plus 11% In Gallup Tracking Poll

Although the seven-day Obama-Romney head-to-head poll still shows Romney ahead by 3%, the three-day Obama approval poll jumped 5% today from plus 6% to plus 11%:



10/21-23/2012 53% 42% 10/20-22/2012 51% 45% 10/19-21/2012 49% 46% 10/18-20/2012 49% 45%



We can expect the phantom Romney lead in the Gallup head-to-head poll to disappear as the small Obama lead in other national polls starts to be accurately reflected in the Gallup poll as well. 

WSJ: Instant Polls Say Obama Won Final Debate

The Wall Street Journal informs it's readers that Obama won the last debate

WASHINGTON–President Barack Obama won the third presidential debate against his Republican rival Governor Mitt Romney according to two instant polls released by CNN and CBS News.

CBS News said that its poll of 521 undecided voters said the president had won the night by a 53% to 23% margin over his GOP counterpart, with a further 24% saying they thought it was a tie. CBS said the margin of error in its poll was +/- 4 percentage points.

CNN said Mr. Obama won by eight percentage points among the debate watchers it polled, 48% to 40%, with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. CNN noted the Obama win was within the margin of error. The network  didn’t say how many respondents there were to its poll.

Inquiring fat cats need to know.


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‘Binders full of women’ hits Amazon

If you search for "binders" on Amazon.com, you will see some very interesting reviews:

Rupert Murdoch: Obama Won Second Debate

At the Rupert Murdoch-owned Wall Street Journal, we have this article entitled Instant Polls: Obama Wins Second Debate

President Barack Obama won the second presidential debate against his Republican rival Gov. Mitt Romney according to two polls released shortly after the debate concluded by CBS News and CNN.

CBS News said its instant poll of 500 uncommitted voters found that Mr. Obama had won the contest by 37% to 30%, with 33% saying they thought the 90 minute session was a tie. That poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

CNN also said the president had won. Its post-debate poll of 457 registered voters said Mr. Obama won 46% to 39%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points.

George Will agrees:

When asked who won the debate, Will responded: “I think [...]

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Honey Boo Boo has Negative 44% Net Favorability in North Carolina

The Democratic Party polling firm Public Policy Polling has a shtick where it solicits polling questions from their blog readers and then actually asks those questions in it's state polls.  The latest concerns the favorability in NC of one Honey Boo Boo:

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Honey Boo Boo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%

Note: I did a Google images search on "Honey Boo Boo" to select the photo above. I strongly recommend that others not try this.

Update:  I almost forgot – the crosstabs!

Highest Honey Boo Boo Favorable (7%): The very liberal

Lowest Honey Boo Boo Favorable (1%) : The somewhat conservative

Highest Honey Boo Boo Unfavorable (62%): Age 30-45 (most likely to watch the show?)

Highest Honey Boo Boo "Not sure" [...]

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Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets

Today I received a rather frantic email from a Democrat: I am SCARED! What is going on with all those polls. Really? Obama’s debate performance was crap but how could it change so drastically!?

It's true, I hadn't written much recently, but I wanted to see how the polls were shaking out and it wasn't clear that any of the fundamentals had changed.  Still, I suppose I should at least blog on what others are writing, namely that Obama is still heavily favored by those who have money on the line:

[S]tart adding up electoral votes until you hit 270. You’re going to find a pivot state: a state that if Obama holds he wins and that if Romney can reach he wins, and that state has been Ohio for virtually the entire election cycle. It [...]

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The RCP Poll-Jerking Is Really Starting To Get Ridiculous

Clicking on the link called All General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data on the "General Election: Romney vs. Obama" page at Real Clear Politics currently brings up the following table:

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread RCP Average 9/26 – 10/7 – – 48.3 47.2 Obama +1.1 Rasmussen Tracking 10/5 – 10/7 1500 LV 3.0 48 48 Tie Gallup Tracking 10/4 – 10/6 1387 RV 3.0 47 47 Tie Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/1 – [...]

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Gallup Tracking Poll Shows Election Referendum On Romney, Not Obama

As we reported yesterday, the daily (de-trended) Gallup Poll on Obama's job approval showed an amazing spike to 61% approve, 39% disapprove the day before the first debate. Today's numbers are out and the (de-trended) numbers are  46% approve, 48% disapprove, giving a three day average of 52% approve, 43% disapprove.

Despite this wild oscillation in Obama's job approval numbers, the Gallup head-to-head with Romney has not changed in a week and a half.  The current numbers are Obama 50%, Romney 45%.  So, although it is reasonable to infer that Obama himself took a hit in voter approval, no one changed their mind about how they are going to vote.

So, if the election is not about Obama, then it must be about Romney.  There are only two of them after all. 

Undecided Voters Actually Do Approve Of Obama

In today's Gallup 3-day rolling average of Obama's job approval, something very unusual happened.  Obama's approval rating spiked from +6 (50% approve/44% disapprove) to +12 (54% approve/42% disapprove).  Spikiness in poll data is normal, which is why they do the rolling average to begin with. But this was a big spike in the rolling average itself and not something you see every day.

On the Gallup website, the data is presented in a very ugly graph.  To view the tabular data, you needed to download a .csv file that brings up Excel.  Somewhat annoying normally, but helpful for attempting to "detrend" the data as I have done below.  The Obama approval spike yesterday being so dramatic does allow a fairly accurate estimation of what the daily, unaveraged poll numbers were for the past two weeks:

Dates Gallup 3-Day Avg Diff Read More