This just in from Public Policy Polling:
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama expanding his lead in the aftermath of his debate victory Monday night. He now has 51% to 46% for Mitt Romney, up from a 49/47 advantage last weekend.
Key findings from the survey include:
-Obama’s seen a 7 point net improvement in his favorability rating among Virginia voters from a -3 spread last week (48/51) to now +4 at 51/47. Romney’s numbers have headed in the other direction. He’s dropped 7 points from a +2 spread on our last poll (49/47) to now -5 at 46/51.
-Voters trust Obama more than Romney on several major issues in the election. Those include who voters think will stand up for the middle class (52/44) and who they think will [...]
Although the seven-day Obama-Romney head-to-head poll still shows Romney ahead by 3%, the three-day Obama approval poll jumped 5% today from plus 6% to plus 11%:
10/21-23/2012 53% 42% 10/20-22/2012 51% 45% 10/19-21/2012 49% 46% 10/18-20/2012 49% 45%
We can expect the phantom Romney lead in the Gallup head-to-head poll to disappear as the small Obama lead in other national polls starts to be accurately reflected in the Gallup poll as well.
Today I received a rather frantic email from a Democrat: I am SCARED! What is going on with all those polls. Really? Obama’s debate performance was crap but how could it change so drastically!?
It's true, I hadn't written much recently, but I wanted to see how the polls were shaking out and it wasn't clear that any of the fundamentals had changed. Still, I suppose I should at least blog on what others are writing, namely that Obama is still heavily favored by those who have money on the line:
[S]tart adding up electoral votes until you hit 270. You’re going to find a pivot state: a state that if Obama holds he wins and that if Romney can reach he wins, and that state has been Ohio for virtually the entire election cycle. It [...]
Clicking on the link called All General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data on the "General Election: Romney vs. Obama" page at Real Clear Politics currently brings up the following table:
Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread RCP Average 9/26 – 10/7 – – 48.3 47.2 Obama +1.1 Rasmussen Tracking 10/5 – 10/7 1500 LV 3.0 48 48 Tie Gallup Tracking 10/4 – 10/6 1387 RV 3.0 47 47 Tie Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/1 – [...]
As we reported yesterday, the daily (de-trended) Gallup Poll on Obama's job approval showed an amazing spike to 61% approve, 39% disapprove the day before the first debate. Today's numbers are out and the (de-trended) numbers are 46% approve, 48% disapprove, giving a three day average of 52% approve, 43% disapprove.
Despite this wild oscillation in Obama's job approval numbers, the Gallup head-to-head with Romney has not changed in a week and a half. The current numbers are Obama 50%, Romney 45%. So, although it is reasonable to infer that Obama himself took a hit in voter approval, no one changed their mind about how they are going to vote.
So, if the election is not about Obama, then it must be about Romney. There are only two of them after all.
As the regulars readers of this blog are aware, I am an unapologetic shill for Obama. Nevertheless, I offer here my sincere advice to Mitt Romney in the first debate this Wednesday. Not because I really wish for Romney to win but rather, as I said here and here, I believe this election is already over and I might as well be a gracious winner. In that spirit, here are my pointers for Romney:
Suggestion 1: Don't choke!
Seriously. You don't want to choke at any point during a Presidential debate, if for no other reason than that it looks really gross and disturbing. John McCain did not follow this advice and lost the 2008 election badly. Romney needs to avoid this very fundamental mistake.
Suggestion 2: Don't try to be funny!
This pointer is more [...]
Did you think 47% was going away? Perhaps, but only if Romney comes out with something even more truly awful. Here is the latest Obama ad consisting of nothing but Romney's words (and helpful imagery):
Likely Obama (184)
Leans Obama (81)
Dist. of Columbia (3)
New Jersey (14)
New York (29)
Rhode Island (4)
New Mexico (5)
Immizen.com Calls The 2012 Presidential Election for Obama
A new CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll gives Obama a ten point lead over Romney in Ohio. This, in combination with the recent Washington Post (Obama +8) and FOX News (Obama +7) polls, have raised the Ohio RCP average to Obama +5.2. The way [...]
See Updates Below
The post "fortysevenpercentgate" state polls are out now and, yes, it really is "stick a fork in him, he's done" time:
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama FOX News Obama 49, Romney 42 Obama +7 Florida: Romney vs. Obama FOX News Obama 49, Romney 44 Obama +5 Virginia: Romney vs. Obama FOX News Obama 50, Romney 43 Obama +7 Colorado: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 48, Romney 47 Obama +1 Virginia: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 50, Romney 46 Obama +4 Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac Obama 51, Romney 45 Obama +6 New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 45, Romney 48 Romney +3 Michigan: Romney vs. Obama CNN/Opinion Research Obama [...]
What a difference a day (or two) makes! Now all election tracking polls are showing a definite post-convention "bounce" for Obama:
In the Gallup national tracking poll, Mr. Obama moved into a three-point lead over Mitt Romney, up from one point on Thursday.
What’s a bit more worrisome for Mr. Romney is that Gallup’s reporting of the head-to-head results in its poll occurs over a lengthy seven-day window, meaning that only a minority of the interviews in the poll were conducted after the major speeches at the Democratic convention.
In fact, most of the interviews in the poll were conducted just after the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla., a period in which Mr. Romney should have been enjoying a convention bounce of his own.
Gallup’s approval ratings, however, are published over a three-day window, meaning that they will be quicker to respond [...]