My First Time


I have all the HBO channels for free until November 7th because I'm a cheapskate and I got an offer from U-Verse so I said "yes, why not." I got hooked to Girls (a series written and produced by Lena Dunham) immediately.I love her raunchy sense of humor, her quirky yet cool character and I have a crush on Brian Willam's daughter…

Today, I was given yet another reason to love this young woman.

How I wish my generation would have had a voice like Lena Dunham. Instead we suffered a creative eclipsed between the movie Reality Bites and the series My So Called Life.

For those of you who haven't watched Girls, I highly recommend it. And for those who haven't given a  to her Ad for Barack Obama, please take a look and do so.



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Obama lead in Virginia up to 5 points

This just in from Public Policy Polling:

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama expanding his lead in the aftermath of his debate victory Monday night. He now has 51% to 46% for Mitt Romney, up from a 49/47 advantage last weekend.

Key findings from the survey include:

-Obama’s seen a 7 point net improvement in his favorability rating among Virginia voters from a -3 spread last week (48/51) to now +4 at 51/47. Romney’s numbers have headed in the other direction. He’s dropped 7 points from a +2 spread on our last poll (49/47) to now -5 at 46/51.

-Voters trust Obama more than Romney on several major issues in the election. Those include who voters think will stand up for the middle class (52/44) and who they think will [...]

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Obama Approval At Plus 11% In Gallup Tracking Poll

Although the seven-day Obama-Romney head-to-head poll still shows Romney ahead by 3%, the three-day Obama approval poll jumped 5% today from plus 6% to plus 11%:



10/21-23/2012 53% 42% 10/20-22/2012 51% 45% 10/19-21/2012 49% 46% 10/18-20/2012 49% 45%



We can expect the phantom Romney lead in the Gallup head-to-head poll to disappear as the small Obama lead in other national polls starts to be accurately reflected in the Gallup poll as well. 

Rupert Murdoch: Obama Won Second Debate

At the Rupert Murdoch-owned Wall Street Journal, we have this article entitled Instant Polls: Obama Wins Second Debate

President Barack Obama won the second presidential debate against his Republican rival Gov. Mitt Romney according to two polls released shortly after the debate concluded by CBS News and CNN.

CBS News said its instant poll of 500 uncommitted voters found that Mr. Obama had won the contest by 37% to 30%, with 33% saying they thought the 90 minute session was a tie. That poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

CNN also said the president had won. Its post-debate poll of 457 registered voters said Mr. Obama won 46% to 39%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points.

George Will agrees:

When asked who won the debate, Will responded: “I think [...]

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Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets

Today I received a rather frantic email from a Democrat: I am SCARED! What is going on with all those polls. Really? Obama’s debate performance was crap but how could it change so drastically!?

It's true, I hadn't written much recently, but I wanted to see how the polls were shaking out and it wasn't clear that any of the fundamentals had changed.  Still, I suppose I should at least blog on what others are writing, namely that Obama is still heavily favored by those who have money on the line:

[S]tart adding up electoral votes until you hit 270. You’re going to find a pivot state: a state that if Obama holds he wins and that if Romney can reach he wins, and that state has been Ohio for virtually the entire election cycle. It [...]

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Gallup Tracking Poll Shows Election Referendum On Romney, Not Obama

As we reported yesterday, the daily (de-trended) Gallup Poll on Obama's job approval showed an amazing spike to 61% approve, 39% disapprove the day before the first debate. Today's numbers are out and the (de-trended) numbers are  46% approve, 48% disapprove, giving a three day average of 52% approve, 43% disapprove.

Despite this wild oscillation in Obama's job approval numbers, the Gallup head-to-head with Romney has not changed in a week and a half.  The current numbers are Obama 50%, Romney 45%.  So, although it is reasonable to infer that Obama himself took a hit in voter approval, no one changed their mind about how they are going to vote.

So, if the election is not about Obama, then it must be about Romney.  There are only two of them after all. 

Undecided Voters Actually Do Approve Of Obama

In today's Gallup 3-day rolling average of Obama's job approval, something very unusual happened.  Obama's approval rating spiked from +6 (50% approve/44% disapprove) to +12 (54% approve/42% disapprove).  Spikiness in poll data is normal, which is why they do the rolling average to begin with. But this was a big spike in the rolling average itself and not something you see every day.

On the Gallup website, the data is presented in a very ugly graph.  To view the tabular data, you needed to download a .csv file that brings up Excel.  Somewhat annoying normally, but helpful for attempting to "detrend" the data as I have done below.  The Obama approval spike yesterday being so dramatic does allow a fairly accurate estimation of what the daily, unaveraged poll numbers were for the past two weeks:

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Tom’s Advice For Mitt Romney In The Upcoming Debates

As the regulars readers of this blog are aware, I am an unapologetic shill for Obama. Nevertheless, I offer here my sincere advice to Mitt Romney in the first debate this Wednesday.  Not because I really wish for Romney to win but rather, as I said here and here, I believe this election is already over and I might as well be a gracious winner.  In that spirit, here are my pointers for Romney:  

Suggestion 1: Don't choke!

Seriously. You don't want to choke at any point during a Presidential debate, if for no other reason than that it looks really gross and disturbing.  John McCain did not follow this advice and lost the 2008 election badly.  Romney needs to avoid this very fundamental mistake.

Suggestion 2: Don't try to be funny!

This pointer is more [...]

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Mitt Romney’s Crocodile Tears

Greg Sargent has really been hitting his stride these days as the Romney ship goes stern-side up.  Here is his news item on the Obama campaign's response to charges of "mischaracterizing" Romney's record:

* Dems hit Romney in advance of debate: The Obama camp is out with a new Web video responding to Romney’s claim that he expects Obama to misrepresent his positions at the debates. The video recaps the alleged falsehoods Romney laments, and demonstrates that they are, well, true. David Axelrod has a memo noting that Romney will hit Obama hard over the economy, but that voters will judge the debates based on whose agenda for the middle class was more compelling.

It’s in the Obama camp’s interests for the media to score this debate based on that latter metric, since it’s in [...]

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47% For 100% Of From Now Until November 6th

Did you think 47% was going away?  Perhaps, but only if Romney comes out with something even more truly awful. Here is the latest Obama ad consisting of nothing but Romney's words (and helpful imagery):