The last stretch: Nate Silver, Sam Wang and Tom predict an Obama win!

What do these three individuals have in common? They use an aggregation of poll results to estimate the probability that Obama will win the election in November. They all focus on the electoral vote because in the US the states decide who wins the election, the popular vote, i.e. the percentage of people from the whole country who vote for one or the other candidate does not matter.

Tom uses straight-forward arithmetic and poll results including those from the right-leaning Real Clear Politics web site for his prediction. As of Nov 3rd, he predicts that Obama will win at least 303 electoral votes which are 33 more than he needs to win the election.

Nate Silver, who started as a blogger in Daily Kos and later established his own web site FiveThirtyEight.com, uses a statistical model, to obtain his predictions. Silver’s latest [...]

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Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets

Today I received a rather frantic email from a Democrat: I am SCARED! What is going on with all those polls. Really? Obama’s debate performance was crap but how could it change so drastically!?

It's true, I hadn't written much recently, but I wanted to see how the polls were shaking out and it wasn't clear that any of the fundamentals had changed.  Still, I suppose I should at least blog on what others are writing, namely that Obama is still heavily favored by those who have money on the line:

[S]tart adding up electoral votes until you hit 270. You’re going to find a pivot state: a state that if Obama holds he wins and that if Romney can reach he wins, and that state has been Ohio for virtually the entire election cycle. It [...]

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