Obama lead in Virginia up to 5 points

This just in from Public Policy Polling:

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama expanding his lead in the aftermath of his debate victory Monday night. He now has 51% to 46% for Mitt Romney, up from a 49/47 advantage last weekend.

Key findings from the survey include:

-Obama’s seen a 7 point net improvement in his favorability rating among Virginia voters from a -3 spread last week (48/51) to now +4 at 51/47. Romney’s numbers have headed in the other direction. He’s dropped 7 points from a +2 spread on our last poll (49/47) to now -5 at 46/51.

-Voters trust Obama more than Romney on several major issues in the election. Those include who voters think will stand up for the middle class (52/44) and who they think will [...]

Read More

Obama Approval At Plus 11% In Gallup Tracking Poll

Although the seven-day Obama-Romney head-to-head poll still shows Romney ahead by 3%, the three-day Obama approval poll jumped 5% today from plus 6% to plus 11%:



10/21-23/2012 53% 42% 10/20-22/2012 51% 45% 10/19-21/2012 49% 46% 10/18-20/2012 49% 45%



We can expect the phantom Romney lead in the Gallup head-to-head poll to disappear as the small Obama lead in other national polls starts to be accurately reflected in the Gallup poll as well. 

‘Binders full of women’ hits Amazon

If you search for "binders" on Amazon.com, you will see some very interesting reviews:

Rupert Murdoch: Obama Won Second Debate

At the Rupert Murdoch-owned Wall Street Journal, we have this article entitled Instant Polls: Obama Wins Second Debate

President Barack Obama won the second presidential debate against his Republican rival Gov. Mitt Romney according to two polls released shortly after the debate concluded by CBS News and CNN.

CBS News said its instant poll of 500 uncommitted voters found that Mr. Obama had won the contest by 37% to 30%, with 33% saying they thought the 90 minute session was a tie. That poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

CNN also said the president had won. Its post-debate poll of 457 registered voters said Mr. Obama won 46% to 39%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points.

George Will agrees:

When asked who won the debate, Will responded: “I think [...]

Read More

Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets

Today I received a rather frantic email from a Democrat: I am SCARED! What is going on with all those polls. Really? Obama’s debate performance was crap but how could it change so drastically!?

It's true, I hadn't written much recently, but I wanted to see how the polls were shaking out and it wasn't clear that any of the fundamentals had changed.  Still, I suppose I should at least blog on what others are writing, namely that Obama is still heavily favored by those who have money on the line:

[S]tart adding up electoral votes until you hit 270. You’re going to find a pivot state: a state that if Obama holds he wins and that if Romney can reach he wins, and that state has been Ohio for virtually the entire election cycle. It [...]

Read More

I am calling you from the campaign of MEE RRONGNEY

Reposted here with permission of abrelaboquita.

There is change in the Cuban community. The Cuban mother of abrelaboquita got a call about a week ago from a Romney canvasser who happened to be like her, an older Cuban immigrant woman. In abrelaboquita's own words:

So she was sitting at home yesterday evening and got the call.

"Buenas noches señora" the lady said. ("good evening mam")
"Yo la estoy llamando de la campaña de Mee RRongney" (I am calling you from the campaign of …
and this is how it sounds and funny way to write for the obvious reason (rr=roll the r) MEE RRONGNEY)

At that point mom says she stopped her cold and told her politely:

"Con permiso señora, yo voy a votar para el presidente Barack Obama" ( Excuse me mam, I am going to vote for prez Barack Obama)


Read More

Gallup Tracking Poll Shows Election Referendum On Romney, Not Obama

As we reported yesterday, the daily (de-trended) Gallup Poll on Obama's job approval showed an amazing spike to 61% approve, 39% disapprove the day before the first debate. Today's numbers are out and the (de-trended) numbers are  46% approve, 48% disapprove, giving a three day average of 52% approve, 43% disapprove.

Despite this wild oscillation in Obama's job approval numbers, the Gallup head-to-head with Romney has not changed in a week and a half.  The current numbers are Obama 50%, Romney 45%.  So, although it is reasonable to infer that Obama himself took a hit in voter approval, no one changed their mind about how they are going to vote.

So, if the election is not about Obama, then it must be about Romney.  There are only two of them after all. 

Obama Got Bin Laden Romney Gets Big Bird

These Romney Big Bird memes are pretty funny.


There are lots more here.


The Election Will Not Be Televised

Unless You Live In A Swing State

My seven-year-old son came up to me one day last week and said "Dad?" "Yes, son?", I replied. "I hate Mitt Romney".

Understand that we live in North Carolina and one of my son's favorite pastimes is playing a game called "Minecraft".  But, besides actually playing Minecraft, he seems to spend almost as much time on Youtube watching videos of other kids playing Minecraft.  On Youtube these days, at least in North Carolina, most Youtube ads are political ads. 

"Why do you hate Mitt Romney?", I asked.  I have never said anything to him about Mitt Romney, ever. 

"Because Mitt Romney is rich and doesn't pay a lot of tax and wants to cut taxes on other rich people."

Like Garrison Keiler says, all kids are "above average", but my son is not more "above average" than any [...]

Read More

Tom’s Advice For Mitt Romney In The Upcoming Debates

As the regulars readers of this blog are aware, I am an unapologetic shill for Obama. Nevertheless, I offer here my sincere advice to Mitt Romney in the first debate this Wednesday.  Not because I really wish for Romney to win but rather, as I said here and here, I believe this election is already over and I might as well be a gracious winner.  In that spirit, here are my pointers for Romney:  

Suggestion 1: Don't choke!

Seriously. You don't want to choke at any point during a Presidential debate, if for no other reason than that it looks really gross and disturbing.  John McCain did not follow this advice and lost the 2008 election badly.  Romney needs to avoid this very fundamental mistake.

Suggestion 2: Don't try to be funny!

This pointer is more [...]

Read More