Gun Votes For Sale


It is really incredible to me that the lobby of a small segment (four million or so) of the population barks so loudly for no-change-in-gun laws, – falsely citing impingement of the Second Amendment – when  is no secret that the vast majority of the people (91 percent of 330 million – do the math) want significant gun law change, including a majority of the members of the NRA.

      Our republic was founded on the principal of sustaining and serving the will of the majority. Historical examples of countries where a few controlled the rights of many are unquestionable proof of the eventual calamity this brought. The present world map is still replete with such injustices. The United States is supposed to stand out as an example of rule by the people.

     The resistance to gun law change is actually being [...]

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Obama lead in Virginia up to 5 points

This just in from Public Policy Polling:

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama expanding his lead in the aftermath of his debate victory Monday night. He now has 51% to 46% for Mitt Romney, up from a 49/47 advantage last weekend.

Key findings from the survey include:

-Obama’s seen a 7 point net improvement in his favorability rating among Virginia voters from a -3 spread last week (48/51) to now +4 at 51/47. Romney’s numbers have headed in the other direction. He’s dropped 7 points from a +2 spread on our last poll (49/47) to now -5 at 46/51.

-Voters trust Obama more than Romney on several major issues in the election. Those include who voters think will stand up for the middle class (52/44) and who they think will [...]

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Obama Approval At Plus 11% In Gallup Tracking Poll

Although the seven-day Obama-Romney head-to-head poll still shows Romney ahead by 3%, the three-day Obama approval poll jumped 5% today from plus 6% to plus 11%:



10/21-23/2012 53% 42% 10/20-22/2012 51% 45% 10/19-21/2012 49% 46% 10/18-20/2012 49% 45%



We can expect the phantom Romney lead in the Gallup head-to-head poll to disappear as the small Obama lead in other national polls starts to be accurately reflected in the Gallup poll as well. 

Rupert Murdoch: Obama Won Second Debate

At the Rupert Murdoch-owned Wall Street Journal, we have this article entitled Instant Polls: Obama Wins Second Debate

President Barack Obama won the second presidential debate against his Republican rival Gov. Mitt Romney according to two polls released shortly after the debate concluded by CBS News and CNN.

CBS News said its instant poll of 500 uncommitted voters found that Mr. Obama had won the contest by 37% to 30%, with 33% saying they thought the 90 minute session was a tie. That poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

CNN also said the president had won. Its post-debate poll of 457 registered voters said Mr. Obama won 46% to 39%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points.

George Will agrees:

When asked who won the debate, Will responded: “I think [...]

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Honey Boo Boo has Negative 44% Net Favorability in North Carolina

The Democratic Party polling firm Public Policy Polling has a shtick where it solicits polling questions from their blog readers and then actually asks those questions in it's state polls.  The latest concerns the favorability in NC of one Honey Boo Boo:

Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Honey Boo Boo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%

Note: I did a Google images search on "Honey Boo Boo" to select the photo above. I strongly recommend that others not try this.

Update:  I almost forgot – the crosstabs!

Highest Honey Boo Boo Favorable (7%): The very liberal

Lowest Honey Boo Boo Favorable (1%) : The somewhat conservative

Highest Honey Boo Boo Unfavorable (62%): Age 30-45 (most likely to watch the show?)

Highest Honey Boo Boo "Not sure" [...]

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Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets

Today I received a rather frantic email from a Democrat: I am SCARED! What is going on with all those polls. Really? Obama’s debate performance was crap but how could it change so drastically!?

It's true, I hadn't written much recently, but I wanted to see how the polls were shaking out and it wasn't clear that any of the fundamentals had changed.  Still, I suppose I should at least blog on what others are writing, namely that Obama is still heavily favored by those who have money on the line:

[S]tart adding up electoral votes until you hit 270. You’re going to find a pivot state: a state that if Obama holds he wins and that if Romney can reach he wins, and that state has been Ohio for virtually the entire election cycle. It [...]

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The RCP Poll-Jerking Is Really Starting To Get Ridiculous

Clicking on the link called All General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data on the "General Election: Romney vs. Obama" page at Real Clear Politics currently brings up the following table:

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread RCP Average 9/26 – 10/7 – – 48.3 47.2 Obama +1.1 Rasmussen Tracking 10/5 – 10/7 1500 LV 3.0 48 48 Tie Gallup Tracking 10/4 – 10/6 1387 RV 3.0 47 47 Tie Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/1 – [...]

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Undecided Voters Actually Do Approve Of Obama

In today's Gallup 3-day rolling average of Obama's job approval, something very unusual happened.  Obama's approval rating spiked from +6 (50% approve/44% disapprove) to +12 (54% approve/42% disapprove).  Spikiness in poll data is normal, which is why they do the rolling average to begin with. But this was a big spike in the rolling average itself and not something you see every day.

On the Gallup website, the data is presented in a very ugly graph.  To view the tabular data, you needed to download a .csv file that brings up Excel.  Somewhat annoying normally, but helpful for attempting to "detrend" the data as I have done below.  The Obama approval spike yesterday being so dramatic does allow a fairly accurate estimation of what the daily, unaveraged poll numbers were for the past two weeks:

Dates Gallup 3-Day Avg Diff Read More

Ohio Goes From “Toss-up” To “Leaning Obama” – Obama Now Has 278 EC Votes!

Likely Obama (184)

Leans Obama (81)

California (55)

Pennsylvania (20)

Dist. of Columbia (3)

Wisconsin (10)

Delaware (3)              

Oregon (7)

Hawaii (4)

Michigan (16)

Illinois (20)

Minnesota (10)

Maryland (10)

Ohio (18)

Massachusetts (11)


New Jersey (14)


New York (29)


Maine (4)

 Virginia (13)

Rhode Island (4)


Vermont (3)

  = 278

Washington (12)

 (270 needed)

New Mexico (5)


Connecticut (7) Calls The 2012 Presidential Election for Obama

A new CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll gives Obama a ten point lead over Romney in Ohio.  This, in combination with the recent Washington Post (Obama +8) and FOX News (Obama +7) polls, have raised the Ohio RCP average to Obama +5.2.  The way [...]

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Obama Gets A Convention Bounce

What a difference a day (or two) makes!  Now all election tracking polls are showing a definite post-convention "bounce" for Obama:

In the Gallup national tracking poll, Mr. Obama moved into a three-point lead over Mitt Romney, up from one point on Thursday.

What’s a bit more worrisome for Mr. Romney is that Gallup’s reporting of the head-to-head results in its poll occurs over a lengthy seven-day window, meaning that only a minority of the interviews in the poll were conducted after the major speeches at the Democratic convention.

In fact, most of the interviews in the poll were conducted just after the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla., a period in which Mr. Romney should have been enjoying a convention bounce of his own.

Gallup’s approval ratings, however, are published over a three-day window, meaning that they will be quicker to respond [...]

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