Obama lead in Virginia up to 5 points

This just in from Public Policy Polling:

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama expanding his lead in the aftermath of his debate victory Monday night. He now has 51% to 46% for Mitt Romney, up from a 49/47 advantage last weekend.

Key findings from the survey include:

-Obama’s seen a 7 point net improvement in his favorability rating among Virginia voters from a -3 spread last week (48/51) to now +4 at 51/47. Romney’s numbers have headed in the other direction. He’s dropped 7 points from a +2 spread on our last poll (49/47) to now -5 at 46/51.

-Voters trust Obama more than Romney on several major issues in the election. Those include who voters think will stand up for the middle class (52/44) and who they think will [...]

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Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets

Today I received a rather frantic email from a Democrat: I am SCARED! What is going on with all those polls. Really? Obama’s debate performance was crap but how could it change so drastically!?

It's true, I hadn't written much recently, but I wanted to see how the polls were shaking out and it wasn't clear that any of the fundamentals had changed.  Still, I suppose I should at least blog on what others are writing, namely that Obama is still heavily favored by those who have money on the line:

[S]tart adding up electoral votes until you hit 270. You’re going to find a pivot state: a state that if Obama holds he wins and that if Romney can reach he wins, and that state has been Ohio for virtually the entire election cycle. It [...]

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Breaking News: Conservative Third-Party Candidate On Virginia Ballot

Virginia, a must-win state for Romney, has just become much more of a reach

In a potentially worrisome development for Mitt Romney, the Virginia state board of elections decided Tuesday morning to allow the Constitution Party candidate for president – former GOP Rep. Virgil Goode – on the ballot in November.

In a brief interview, Mr. Goode said he was pleased with the result, but not surprised. Republican officials had questioned some signatures that Mr. Goode collected on petitions, he said, suggesting for example that it wasn’t possible to gather so many signatures from people living in different places at once.

Mr. Goode said the explanation was simple – he and other Constitution Party officials went to big events such as festivals to collect signatures.

“People come from all over the state to the Chicken Festival,” he said, adding, “I don’t think this speaks [...]

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Mitt Out of Luck

Don't bother reading anything that I type above the little brown box.  Just read what they say:

Barack Obama continues to look like the favorite to win Virginia this fall. He has a 51-43 lead over Mitt Romney in the state. We have consistently found Obama leading in Virginia by margins similar to his 6 point victory there in 2008- he led Romney by 6 in December, 4 in July, 11 in May (right after the killing of Osama bin Laden), and 6 last March.

Real Clear Politics has dropped the 3/20 Rassmussen poll in Virginia showing Obama up by 9 points from their rolling averageLike North Carolina, Virginia is a must-win state for Romney.  Losing Virginia means he has no chance to win the election.